Artosis prediction desk

Artosis Salt Calculator

V3 blend
Match read
Live prediction pool

Pool totals unlock a single bet direction and stake. Without them, use the break-even thresholds.

Win probability

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Against Valks

Recommendation

Enter match data

The engine will calculate probability, edge, and bet size.

Opponent rank --
MMR diff --
V1 MMR model --
V2 rank model --

Market discipline

Break-even and sizing

Twitch predictions are parimutuel. The correct bet depends on the crowd price, not just whether Valks is favored.

Minimum payout

Bet Valks only at
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Bet against only at
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Quarter-Kelly table

Common payout multipliers
Price On Valks Against

Model notes

What this is using

V1 uses Valks MMR, opponent MMR, and opponent race. V2 uses empirical rank-tier calibration from the prototype. V3 blends them evenly and is the primary recommendation.

Stake sizing uses quarter-Kelly by default. That is intentionally conservative for a noisy ladder and a prediction market that moves while users place points.

This is a decision aid, not a guarantee. If the market is inside the break-even thresholds, the correct move is to skip.